The question I asked last time was whether there was a marketplace for 3D printers in the home. Right now if there is such a market I would that it is quite small. There may be small groups of hobbyists or SME (small to medium sized enterprises) who might find such a device useful but this would not of itself constitute a sizeable marketplace. If this is the case, could it ever be the case that many homes might have a 3D printing device as part of their inventory of home machinery, sitting in some corner beside their washing machine or in the shed next to the lawnmower. Not right now, no. In fact as I see it a lot would have to change for this ever to happen.
Owning and operating a 3D printer is quite expensive right now, companies that use can afford to do so because they lower the costs of building test models of their products. They do so in two ways; the task of creating even a simple prototype can take several days of labour using a team of several trained technicians, with the aid of a printer this task is streamlined. Also, due to the fact that a printer can be kept in operation twenty four hours a day means it’s potential output trumps that of a human being. Another point to consider stems from the success of contemporary industry’s success at both defining and meeting the demands of the consumer for devices designed to make life that much easier. Would the owning of a 3D printing system in the home be compatible with industry’s need for passive consumers? Right now that is not such an issue, since few people would have the wherewithal to even attempt to build from scratch any of the machinery on which the modern home depends. DIY seems to be the upper limit of what people can achieve, with some perhaps at best capable of repairing some of the machinery in their home. The point here is that there is no incentive to try to self fabricate devices and machinery the home depends on; it will always be cheaper, easier and more prudent to buy goods that exceed a certain complexity.
Supplying goods and services to the hobbyist tends to be seen as something of a niche market. Take hobbyists who restore classic cars or build kit cars for weekend racing. They may need on occasion to have special pieces built for their project. The car restorer may someone to supply a missing component, the kit car enthusiast might need a gasket. In most cases these are supplied through specialist vendors, but if the circumstances warrant it they may be able to get the piece made. We are still in the conventional model of consumer demand in the market place. We are entering a time now where the availability of these new fangled 3D printers where a customer can design the piece he needs on his home computer and have some third party fabricate the piece for him.
As the demand for these technologies improves, it is a truism of economics that the prices will fall. Someone skilled enough and working on a project where this technology will substantially improve his or her ability to create goods may find the investment worthwhile. It is very likely that hobbyist groups will turn to this technology as and when it becomes an economically viable alternative. For this technology to bridge the gap from relatively small niche markets to becoming widespread enough to become something typically found in the home several concurrent things need to happen. The cost needs to be reduced significantly, the level of expertise required to use this technology effectively needs to be within the grasp of a large subsection of the population and complementary goods and services that allow the home user to make the most of this new technology needs to become available.
Right now some of these things are happening, albeit on a small scale. The open source RepRap community in many ways are the exemplar of this movement. As an open source project, hobbyists and semi-professionals have designed a functioning 3D printer. If you want to get your hands on one right now, you can buy either kits or fully assembled printers (if you’re interested the latest model is the Mendel. I could write several articles on RepRap and other similar open source projects, and someday I might just do that but for now I just want to point out some key features.
One of the primary goals of the reprap community is to one day build a device that can fabricate al of the parts necessary to build another printer. Right now I think it is fair to say there is along way to go before this can be achieved. Even the latest model; the Mendel, is not yet equal to professional equipment and most variants are limited with the kinds of material they can use to build objects. As yet, only various kinds of plastics and acrylics are possible and while there are members of the community working on variants that can use a technique called selective laser sintering +link to wiki to enable these machines to create metal objects, this is not yet standard. So far these printers can only produce some of the parts necessary. Most of the key components; stepper motors, metal guide rails, electronics etc, need to be purchased in order to actually build the printer. It will be a long time before these devices evolve through successive iterations before a device capable of reproducing all of the complex parts necessary for another machine is possible.
To make these devices practical for the home, several advances to the hardware are necessary. The range of objects they can produce must be made from materials that are practical, in particular several kinds of metal would be a definite requirement. Copper, steel, aluminium are present in many devices in the home and so a device that cannot use these materials would be severely limited to what it could produce. Also, the home user could not be expected to design the devices she or he needs to build. This is where the open source community could become a very useful thing indeed. Imagine a repository of online blueprints for all of the things you need in the home. These blueprints would be optimised for production by a 3D fabricator. You download the blueprints, the printer configuration files and purchase cartridges of the raw materials you require and several hours later you could have the missing fiddly bits that broke off your dishwasher, some new delf and all the bits you need to rebuild the motor in your vacuum cleaner. Machines capable of rendering these objects alreadty exist although priced somewhat out of reach to the average person. I suspect also that the skills needed to use it properly are also beyond the reach of many. Yet with most advances required being in the realm of ensuring ease of use the technology itself is already there.
So there you have it, the question is only one of market demand, will it ever be possible for this technology to compete in the marketplace. Next I will discuss what markets there could be for this technology, examine the culture of consumerism that might mitigate against and just for laughs take a quick look at the terrifying consequences of it's abuse
Wednesday, 23 March 2011
Monday, 14 March 2011
Building Stuff
I wonder how many people are like me?
Those people with a room full of stuff and buried in there, some random pile full of unfinished business. A half-assed wallet made of duct tape, a partially disassembled ipod they keep meaning to repair or an old craft magazine with plans and diagrams for people who might want to build their own sofa-bed. It embarrasses me to admit, especially coming from a family of artisan types, cabinet makers, electricians and mechanics, the kinds of people that build the stuff all the other people live in. I should be too were it not for the unbridgeable gulf between my hands and my plans. I might dream someday of building my own house, or car, or I-phone app and in my head. In that wonderful magical place I can see all those things waving to me from a warm and fuzzy future that might someday be; a perfect future where I get to unleash this so far untapped potential. So I get sad sometimes when I ponder my next project all the while trying to ignore the pile of unfinished achievements sitting abandoned in the corner. I try hard to forget it and let myself be seduced by some new distraction. I guess that explains my enthusiasm for all these new technologies, all beckoning and inviting me to build and create.
In a roundabout way I guess I am wondering is there a real demand for these technologies in the home. Outside of a dedicated hobbyist market how many people would want a factory in the home, how many homes would need that technology. In a previous post I covered how effective the industrialisation of manufacturing has been to increasing our access to goods and technology has been. It seems a truism, for better or worse, that we will always want more. Something else worth mentioning, one of the many advances we have made as a culture is the seperation of the home from the workplace. For those of us fortunate enough to be born in this particular hemisphere we too easily forget this fundamental change in our lives. Cottage industry, a term we now often take to mean contemporary artisans eaking a romantic living from their crafts, is a historic term predating the eponimous idustrial revolution when cottages and factories were often the same thing. To catch a glimpse of the reality of this, it would make sense to look at the thousands of one room factories in the slums of Mumbai, where workers clean up every night to prepare some space in which to sleep. They do so because it is the only they can earn enough to eat, in a developing nation with very few of the safety nets that protect most citizens of western nations from the true misery of poverty. The welfare state (more on the history of that sometime soon) is a privelege few nations can truly afford. Which brings me back to the point I was making, we benefit hugely from these cheap production centers, it is very likely that most of the cheap goods and consumables originate from these slum factories, sweatshops and maquiladoras (Mexican factories with often harsh employment conditions (relative to european standards) producing goods exclusively for export to the U.S.A. And Europe). Perhaps for the ethical consumer the opportunity to build these items using a liitle machine tucked away in the corner of the utility room might become an attractive proposition. Not that this is without it's own set of ethical problems, and we will discuss those another time.
Those people with a room full of stuff and buried in there, some random pile full of unfinished business. A half-assed wallet made of duct tape, a partially disassembled ipod they keep meaning to repair or an old craft magazine with plans and diagrams for people who might want to build their own sofa-bed. It embarrasses me to admit, especially coming from a family of artisan types, cabinet makers, electricians and mechanics, the kinds of people that build the stuff all the other people live in. I should be too were it not for the unbridgeable gulf between my hands and my plans. I might dream someday of building my own house, or car, or I-phone app and in my head. In that wonderful magical place I can see all those things waving to me from a warm and fuzzy future that might someday be; a perfect future where I get to unleash this so far untapped potential. So I get sad sometimes when I ponder my next project all the while trying to ignore the pile of unfinished achievements sitting abandoned in the corner. I try hard to forget it and let myself be seduced by some new distraction. I guess that explains my enthusiasm for all these new technologies, all beckoning and inviting me to build and create.
In a roundabout way I guess I am wondering is there a real demand for these technologies in the home. Outside of a dedicated hobbyist market how many people would want a factory in the home, how many homes would need that technology. In a previous post I covered how effective the industrialisation of manufacturing has been to increasing our access to goods and technology has been. It seems a truism, for better or worse, that we will always want more. Something else worth mentioning, one of the many advances we have made as a culture is the seperation of the home from the workplace. For those of us fortunate enough to be born in this particular hemisphere we too easily forget this fundamental change in our lives. Cottage industry, a term we now often take to mean contemporary artisans eaking a romantic living from their crafts, is a historic term predating the eponimous idustrial revolution when cottages and factories were often the same thing. To catch a glimpse of the reality of this, it would make sense to look at the thousands of one room factories in the slums of Mumbai, where workers clean up every night to prepare some space in which to sleep. They do so because it is the only they can earn enough to eat, in a developing nation with very few of the safety nets that protect most citizens of western nations from the true misery of poverty. The welfare state (more on the history of that sometime soon) is a privelege few nations can truly afford. Which brings me back to the point I was making, we benefit hugely from these cheap production centers, it is very likely that most of the cheap goods and consumables originate from these slum factories, sweatshops and maquiladoras (Mexican factories with often harsh employment conditions (relative to european standards) producing goods exclusively for export to the U.S.A. And Europe). Perhaps for the ethical consumer the opportunity to build these items using a liitle machine tucked away in the corner of the utility room might become an attractive proposition. Not that this is without it's own set of ethical problems, and we will discuss those another time.
Thursday, 10 March 2011
Bits of essays, I might get around to finishing someday...
Models for manufacturing in a knowledge economy.
It used to be, if you wanted something you bought it. This meant shopping in all it’s various forms. You could go to the shops, or buy from a catalogue and get your order delivered. The advent of the internet certainly had an impact on our shopping habits, if you could afford the shipping charges you could buy your goods from a global marketplace. It is a long list of web based companies that offer these services to us, their prospective clients. These technologies, these new means to purchase our goods and services could itself be about to change. The limits of conventional manufacturing may themselves soon be rendered obsolete.
The relationship between the consumer and the manufacturer.
If you look to the history of manufacturing always there is the relationship between the producer and the consumer. It has been a long history, prior to the industrial revolution and the advent of mass production, communities were relatively self sufficient. Within any given community the goods and services available were for the most part produced by local craftsmen. The study of our earliest histories, shows us there was trade happening at many different scales. There is plenty of evidence, (citation) of trade at what we would call now international level, the ancient silk road for instance, or the trade in gold from Celtic Ireland (native jewellery from that period has been discovered in Switzerland(Citation)). Perhaps I should point out the proclivity for pillage and plunder exercised by so many historic civilisations could well have been the means by which this ‘trade’ was exacted. The terms and conditions under which trade takes place may in some circumstances have improved the relationship between producer and customer but the raw mechanisms remain intact of supply and demand remain intact, even if the those who demand don't explicitly wave swords about ….in the pursuit of favourable terms...during price negotiations. Despite the advent of industrialised manufacturing, the decline of what we would now consider craft based industries unable to compete with cheaper mass produced goods, a core mechanism is still in play; the physical exchange of goods. While money may have become increasingly ephemeral and in a somewhat ironic twist all the more dangerous for it, there is no getting around the belligerent necessity of stuff. It comes from further afield than ever before in history and at a molecular level there have never been more complicated chemicals and substances at your fingertips. Yet still, you have to buy it from somewhere and it has to get delivered to your door. The technology underlying these transactions, credit systems, logistics, research and design all have benefited from the onward march of progress and now we are beginning to see some fundamental transformations in the relationship we have with this process. The oft decried critique of mass production, is the reduction in choice. As Henry Ford declared 'You can have it in any colour as long as it is black' The compensation in this alleged lack of choice is the reduction in cost to the consumer, and for many this seems a fair trade, those nostalgic for those halcyon days of handmade goods and diligent craftsmanship also forget the crushing intensity of physical labour so many suffered for so many centuries. The mawkish sentiment for rigidly enforced social castes aside there has been a a substantial benefit in return, a more equal society brought about by better access to labour saving goods and services. Those who point out the abuse of this technology forget how those same core technologies make their critique possible at all.
This potted history of the benefits of manufacture, leads us to the fundamentals of the modern consumer society. The availability of cheap goods, the resulting improvements to baseline living standards and as a result of this; an ever growing market of consumers looking to acquire ever better goods and services. The point I started out trying to make, and seem only to make passing mention of after a digression or two is the advent of new production techniques that may forever change the consumer's relationship with the manufacturer. As I said, except in those cases where someone can afford the handmade option for goods (Where practical, or instead go with 'exclusive and high cost' manufacturers for that extra cache at the dinner table/golf club/wifeswapping party, we are subject to the whims of large corporations for the majority of our manufactured goods. The cost of manufacturing one's own goods is outside the reach of many, and there are none I suspect capable of building from scratch every device or object they might require. I can only think of one character even in fiction and that was Robinson Crusoe in a time when even his set of skills was remarkable and highly unlikely. Also God doesn't count, I suppose technically he could build anything he wanted (like say, earth), yet as a being transcendent of the material world; omniscient, omnipotent and omnipresent I suspect he has little need to record The Glenn Beck Show on a home made DVR. He probably sticks to carpentry (and sending people to hell).
Right, so back to the future of manufactured, goods. The point is goods are cheap because of massive economies of scale, you can make the same by the millions for very little cost per item. If for instance you decided you wanted everything in your home to be in some way unique, to reflect to those invited inside your own personal tastes, you would have to spend a lot of money, as discussed above. Now, with the advent of cheap fabrication devices we can expect these prices begin to fall. The question is, will it ever become practical for the typical consumer to take a greater hand in the manufactured goods they want. Let's start by taking a look at businesses that are already in the business of building prototypes, taking visual concepts for objects (glasses, cars, household goods and electronic doodads) and building the first prototypes. Often these are mere mock-ups, the shell that someday might be filled with the engines and computers that add the functionality. As part of the process of design it is often invaluable for a company to have something tangible they can interact with. While the costs are still high from a home use perspective, for companies the steady reduction in costs of this equipment mean many companies will now have this equipment in house. In other words the cost of building prototypes is steadily falling in price, so in the next issue, will there ever be market for factories in the home?
It used to be, if you wanted something you bought it. This meant shopping in all it’s various forms. You could go to the shops, or buy from a catalogue and get your order delivered. The advent of the internet certainly had an impact on our shopping habits, if you could afford the shipping charges you could buy your goods from a global marketplace. It is a long list of web based companies that offer these services to us, their prospective clients. These technologies, these new means to purchase our goods and services could itself be about to change. The limits of conventional manufacturing may themselves soon be rendered obsolete.
The relationship between the consumer and the manufacturer.
If you look to the history of manufacturing always there is the relationship between the producer and the consumer. It has been a long history, prior to the industrial revolution and the advent of mass production, communities were relatively self sufficient. Within any given community the goods and services available were for the most part produced by local craftsmen. The study of our earliest histories, shows us there was trade happening at many different scales. There is plenty of evidence, (citation) of trade at what we would call now international level, the ancient silk road for instance, or the trade in gold from Celtic Ireland (native jewellery from that period has been discovered in Switzerland(Citation)). Perhaps I should point out the proclivity for pillage and plunder exercised by so many historic civilisations could well have been the means by which this ‘trade’ was exacted. The terms and conditions under which trade takes place may in some circumstances have improved the relationship between producer and customer but the raw mechanisms remain intact of supply and demand remain intact, even if the those who demand don't explicitly wave swords about ….in the pursuit of favourable terms...during price negotiations. Despite the advent of industrialised manufacturing, the decline of what we would now consider craft based industries unable to compete with cheaper mass produced goods, a core mechanism is still in play; the physical exchange of goods. While money may have become increasingly ephemeral and in a somewhat ironic twist all the more dangerous for it, there is no getting around the belligerent necessity of stuff. It comes from further afield than ever before in history and at a molecular level there have never been more complicated chemicals and substances at your fingertips. Yet still, you have to buy it from somewhere and it has to get delivered to your door. The technology underlying these transactions, credit systems, logistics, research and design all have benefited from the onward march of progress and now we are beginning to see some fundamental transformations in the relationship we have with this process. The oft decried critique of mass production, is the reduction in choice. As Henry Ford declared 'You can have it in any colour as long as it is black' The compensation in this alleged lack of choice is the reduction in cost to the consumer, and for many this seems a fair trade, those nostalgic for those halcyon days of handmade goods and diligent craftsmanship also forget the crushing intensity of physical labour so many suffered for so many centuries. The mawkish sentiment for rigidly enforced social castes aside there has been a a substantial benefit in return, a more equal society brought about by better access to labour saving goods and services. Those who point out the abuse of this technology forget how those same core technologies make their critique possible at all.
This potted history of the benefits of manufacture, leads us to the fundamentals of the modern consumer society. The availability of cheap goods, the resulting improvements to baseline living standards and as a result of this; an ever growing market of consumers looking to acquire ever better goods and services. The point I started out trying to make, and seem only to make passing mention of after a digression or two is the advent of new production techniques that may forever change the consumer's relationship with the manufacturer. As I said, except in those cases where someone can afford the handmade option for goods (Where practical, or instead go with 'exclusive and high cost' manufacturers for that extra cache at the dinner table/golf club/wifeswapping party, we are subject to the whims of large corporations for the majority of our manufactured goods. The cost of manufacturing one's own goods is outside the reach of many, and there are none I suspect capable of building from scratch every device or object they might require. I can only think of one character even in fiction and that was Robinson Crusoe in a time when even his set of skills was remarkable and highly unlikely. Also God doesn't count, I suppose technically he could build anything he wanted (like say, earth), yet as a being transcendent of the material world; omniscient, omnipotent and omnipresent I suspect he has little need to record The Glenn Beck Show on a home made DVR. He probably sticks to carpentry (and sending people to hell).
Right, so back to the future of manufactured, goods. The point is goods are cheap because of massive economies of scale, you can make the same by the millions for very little cost per item. If for instance you decided you wanted everything in your home to be in some way unique, to reflect to those invited inside your own personal tastes, you would have to spend a lot of money, as discussed above. Now, with the advent of cheap fabrication devices we can expect these prices begin to fall. The question is, will it ever become practical for the typical consumer to take a greater hand in the manufactured goods they want. Let's start by taking a look at businesses that are already in the business of building prototypes, taking visual concepts for objects (glasses, cars, household goods and electronic doodads) and building the first prototypes. Often these are mere mock-ups, the shell that someday might be filled with the engines and computers that add the functionality. As part of the process of design it is often invaluable for a company to have something tangible they can interact with. While the costs are still high from a home use perspective, for companies the steady reduction in costs of this equipment mean many companies will now have this equipment in house. In other words the cost of building prototypes is steadily falling in price, so in the next issue, will there ever be market for factories in the home?
Thursday, 3 March 2011
Getting Started
Maybe I read too much science fiction, or more likely take it too seriously. Sometimes, it seems the real world is a sci fi novel that just does not seem to work properly. I expect the world over, sci fi writers are screwing up their faces in mind numbing torment as they live through another day of science’s failed expectations. Where are the Microsoft thinking machines or Ryan Aerospace’s budget tickets to the moon? Where are the cures for cancer, stupidity and the common cold? Why doesn’t my car fly, or talk or even drive itself? Is the achievement of all this stuff really hard or something? I guess the simple answer is yes, all of the above are, for some reason, quite difficult to achieve.
If I was to give this blog a theme I would go with a kind of optimism, a prudent, considered optimism. As much as I want to see technology unfettered and used to it’s greatest potential, I have to be honest and admit I am pretty choosy when it comes to what kinds of goodies I would like to see. There is, I think, a way to differentiate between between the good and bad, I have to admit also that the means by which these judgements are reached is problematic. Beyond merely describing the possible the consequences of these new technologies, discussing the possible consequences both positive and negative remains the issue which ultimately requires debate. So, in the articles that follow some thought will be given to both their best use and what constitutes the possible misuse or downright abuse that might follow these discoveries.
In the first article I will cover the brief history of prototype fabrication, in particular the newest and fanciest desktop appliances a very rich nerd might be able to purchase. The 3D printer; not only can you print a photo of your loved ones but soon if you can afford it, you can knock out sculpted bust too. Over the next week, I will update the article providing a brief history of the technology, where it is at today and what wee might expect from it in the future.
If I was to give this blog a theme I would go with a kind of optimism, a prudent, considered optimism. As much as I want to see technology unfettered and used to it’s greatest potential, I have to be honest and admit I am pretty choosy when it comes to what kinds of goodies I would like to see. There is, I think, a way to differentiate between between the good and bad, I have to admit also that the means by which these judgements are reached is problematic. Beyond merely describing the possible the consequences of these new technologies, discussing the possible consequences both positive and negative remains the issue which ultimately requires debate. So, in the articles that follow some thought will be given to both their best use and what constitutes the possible misuse or downright abuse that might follow these discoveries.
In the first article I will cover the brief history of prototype fabrication, in particular the newest and fanciest desktop appliances a very rich nerd might be able to purchase. The 3D printer; not only can you print a photo of your loved ones but soon if you can afford it, you can knock out sculpted bust too. Over the next week, I will update the article providing a brief history of the technology, where it is at today and what wee might expect from it in the future.
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